Downside risks to the NABE report outweigh upside risks.
When is a recession likely to start? Probably not until the middle of 2021 according to panelists surveyed for the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) December Outlook. According to the report, panelists are split over the timing of a recession with the odds of a recession occurring through the first half of 2020 remaining generally low in the eyes of respondents.
Panelists put the odds of a recession starting in the second half of 2019 at 5%, rising to 21% by the first half of 2020 and 43% by the end of next year. Respondents put the odds of a recession starting by mid-2021 at 66%. The odds of a recession beginning after mid-2021 are 34%, according to the NABE Outlook. Additionally, panelist expect economic growth—as measured by inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP)—to continue in 2020.
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