The overwhelming majority of respondents to the October 2022 National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Business Conditions Survey are downgrading their economic growth forecasts for both 2022 and 2023, according to the report. The economists surveyed say they expect a recession despite the continuing growth in jobs.
“More than three-quarters of respondents believe the odds are 50-50 or less that the economy will achieve a 'soft landing',” says NABE Vice President Julia Coronado, president and founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “More than half the panelists indicate that the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook is too much monetary tightness.”
Other findings in the report:
• The panel expects the quarterly unemployment rate to rise beginning in the fourth quarter of 2022, and to continue to edge higher each quarter of 2023.
• The overall consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise 8.0%, year-over-year, 2022—compared to the mean 5.6% forecasted in the May 2022 survey.
For the entire report, visit: www.nabe.com
