Several years back, I had the privilege of visiting Santiago de Compostela, a UNESCO World Heritage site in Spain. This city is renowned for its magnificent Cathedral de Santiago de Compostela, which marks the endpoint of the famous Camino de Santiago pilgrimage.
The cathedral's origins are steeped in legend. In the early 9th century, a hermit named Pelagius reportedly witnessed an unusual light hovering over an ancient Roman tomb in a forest. This area, known as finis terrae or "the end of the known Earth," became the site where the cathedral was constructed.
The tomb was believed to contain the remains of St. James the Greater, one of Jesus' Apostles, making it one of Christianity's most sacred sites. Though the town faced destruction in the late 10th century, it was gradually rebuilt over the following century.
Today, Santiago de Compostela's old town is a captivating blend of architectural styles, including Baroque, Romanesque and Gothic. Its rich history and stunning aesthetics make it a truly remarkable destination for visitors.
During our tour of the church, we inquired about the authenticity of St. James's remains in the tomb. Our guide’s response was quizzical: "It's not impossible that it's possible."
The guide explained that scientific studies had been conducted on the remains. These analyses revealed that the bones dated to the appropriate historical period and exhibited injuries consistent with the accounts of St. James's martyrdom.
Therefore, it is possible that the cathedral indeed houses St. James's final resting place, but this does not provide absolute proof.
“It’s not impossible that it’s possible” stuck with me from a process safety perspective. In process safety, we often deal with low-probability, high-consequence events. Our tendency to underestimate the likelihood of rare occurrences—a cognitive bias known as the neglect of probability—can lead us to dismiss the possibility of process safety incidents simply because they seem highly improbable.
However, this mindset can be dangerous. The key principle to remember is that if a hazard exists, no matter how unlikely, the potential for an incident always remains. In other words, if the hazard is present, it's not impossible that an incident is possible.
This perspective underscores the importance of maintaining vigilance, implementing robust safety measures and never becoming complacent, even when dealing with scenarios that seem highly unlikely. It reminds us to always respect the potential for risk and to maintain a proactive approach to safety management.
The phrase "that can't happen here" in risk assessments makes me nervous and is a red flag. It indicates both complacency and a misunderstanding of risk's nature. This combination inadvertently increases the likelihood of the incident occurring eventually. People often fall into this false sense of security due to existing controls or barriers, overlooking that these measures may not be foolproof. Such an attitude can lead to overlooking potential vulnerabilities and failing to prepare for unlikely but possible scenarios.
A strategy I have adopted when faced with this type of statement is to ask, “how could it happen?” This is valuable, as it moves the discussion from a point of dismissing the possibility to an exploration of what the barriers or controls are and then further discussion on how they could fail. This allows us to think about how we are assuring our barriers or controls and to map out what the failure pathway may look like. When we have a discussion about what the failure events may look like, we are priming our brains to look for these events subconsciously. Allowing us the time to intervene before an incident occurs.
This is akin to my concept of The Platypus Philosophy, where I use PLATYPUS (see “Prevent Process Safety Incidents by Identifying Weak Signals”) as an action plan to determine if the weak signal identified is likely to result in an adverse event. I am working on a methodology to help identify what the weak signals may be before they occur, so we can prime our brains to look for them, just like looking for how our controls or barriers might fail. Stay tuned for more details as this develops.
What are the impossibilities in your facility? What are the scenarios that are being discounted because they seem very unlikely? If they were to occur, would you have a means to respond and mitigate the consequences? The next time someone says, “That can’t happen here,” challenge them back with, “It’s not impossible that it’s possible.”
